1. Guimaras Headline Inflation

The headline inflation rate (all items) of Guimaras province slowed to 3.6 percent in October 2024 from 4.7 percent in September 2024, bringing the provincial average inflation from January to October 2024 to 5.8 percent. The inflation rate for October 2023 at 4.6 percent is higher by 1.0 percentage points. (Figure 1)

1.1 Main Drivers to the Downward Trend of the Headline Inflation

The downtrend in the overall inflation in October 2024 was primarily influenced by the decreased year-on-year price change in Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas, and Other Fuels at 6.7 percent during the month, from 10.2 percent in September 2024. The slower annual price change on Food and Non Alcoholic Beverages at 4.5 percent in October 2024 from 5.3 percent in the previous month and Health at 3.9 percent from 6.9 percent a month ago also contributed to the sluggish overall inflation.

Likewise, reduced price changes in the seven commodity groups were observed among Furnishings, Household Equipment and Routine Household Maintenance at -0.3 percent in October from 0.7 percent in September 2024; Clothing and Footwear at 0.3 percent from 1.1 percent; Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco at 4.1 percent from 4.7 percent; Personal Care, and Miscellaneous Goods And Services at 1.7 percent from 2.1 percent; Recreation, Sport and Culture at 6.3 percent from 8.8 percent; and Restaurants and Accommodation Services at 5.1 percent from 5.2 percent in September 2024.

1.2 Main Contributors to the Headline Inflation

The top three commodity groups mainly contributing to the October 2024 overall inflation were:

a. Food and non-alcoholic beverages with 60.6 percent share or 2.18 percentage points; 

b. Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels with 28.6 percent share or 1.03 percentage point; and 

c. Restaurants and Accommodation Services with 6.8 percent share or 0.24 percentage point.

2. Guimaras Core Inflation

Core inflation, which excludes selected food and energy items, also slowed to 1.7 percent in October 2024 from 2.2 percent in the previous month. In October 2023, core inflation was higher at 4.1 percent.

3. Headline Inflation per province in Region VI

The inflation rates in Western Visayas from October 2023 to October 2024 reveal distinct trends across provinces, with notable variations in economic conditions. Overall, the province experienced slower inflation rates during the early months of 2024, reaching their lowest level around January and February, followed by a moderate increase from March onward.

Guimaras consistently recorded higher inflation rates than other provinces, peaking at 7.2% in March 2024.

Despite the decline in the last three months, Guimaras remained one of the most volatile provinces of the Western Visayas region, with significant fluctuations throughout the year. In contrast, Iloilo posted the lowest rates during the early months of 2024, with inflation dropping to a low of 1.2% in January, demonstrating better price stability.

Aklan and Antique exhibited sharper fluctuations. Aklan dropped to 3.0% in January before peaking at 6.4% in July and then sharply declined to 2.3% in September, the lowest rate in the province for that month. Antique experienced a similar pattern, with inflation climbing to 6.7% in April before dropping to 2.4% in September.

Meanwhile, Capiz showed a relatively stable inflation trend, with rates fluctuating minimally between 2.8% and 5.8% throughout the period. Negros Occidental began with the highest rate in October 2023 at 7.8% but saw a significant decline to 2.2% in January 2024, followed by a modest rebound in mid-2024.

The early months of 2024 reflected significant deflation, likely due to easing economic pressures. However, reaching the middle of the year, inflationary pressures began to rise again, particularly in the provinces of Aklan, Antique, and Guimaras, which showed volatile rates.

By October 2024, most provinces demonstrated improved price stability, with rates converging at lower levels. This period highlights the challenges and successes of managing inflation across a diverse economic region, with Guimaras and Negros Occidental standing out for their relatively higher average rates. At the same time, Iloilo and Capiz maintained more stable economic conditions.

4. Guimaras Purchasing Power of the Peso (PPP)

The Purchasing Power of the Peso (PPP) in Guimaras from October 2023 to October 2024 illustrates a consistent depreciation trend since 2018 (base year), revealing that one peso in 2018 is now equivalent to only 0.75 centavos in October 2024, showing continuous depreciation value of the peso over time. The data for the past 13 months shows erratic movements in PPP, with notable declines and occasional recoveries.

In October 2023, the PPP stood at 0.79 but gradually declined to 0.77 by December 2023. This downward trend continued into early 2024, where it further weakened to 0.76 in January and eventually reached 0.75 by February and March, marking the lowest value recorded during this period. From April to June 2024, there was a slight improvement, with the PPP rising to 0.76. However, this increment was short-lived, as the PPP depreciated again to 0.75 from July to September 2024.

By October 2024, the PPP showed a modest recovery, increasing to 0.76. Despite this improvement, the overall trend highlights the persistent depreciation of the purchasing power of the peso. Over the past year, the PPP remained within a narrow range of 0.75 to 0.79, with fluctuations reflecting changes in price levels and economic conditions in Guimaras. These movements underscore the challenges for the province in maintaining the peso value against rising prices, indicating a need for sustained economic measures to stabilize purchasing power. (Figure 3)

DEFINITION OF TERMS 

Rate of change in the Consumer Price Index. Its formula is given by: 

Where: is the current period 

                 is the CPI in the previous period.

Year-on-year inflation 

Rate of change in the Consumer Price Index in a specific period of the current year relative to the same period in the previous year. 

Month-on-Month inflation 

Rate of change in the Consumer Price Index in a specific period of the current month relative to the previous month in the current year. 

Consumer Price Index 

Indicator of the change in the average prices of a fixed basket of goods and services commonly purchased by an average Filipino household for their day-to-day consumption relative to a base year. It is most widely used in the calculation of the inflation rate and purchasing power of the peso (PPP). 

Relative to this, daily, weekly, and bi-monthly price surveys are conducted nationwide at the provincial offices including the District Offices of the National Capital Region (NCR) to be able to generate monthly CPI for All Income Households and CPI for the Bottom 30% Income Households. Indicators produced from price surveys are regarded as designated statistics. 

The seasonally adjusted CPI provides comparisons after removing the seasonal variations that may affect the series. The formula used in computing the CPI is the weighted arithmetic mean of price relatives, the Laspeyre’s formula with a fixed base year period (2018) weights given by. 

Purchasing Power of Peso (PPP) 

Indicates how much the Philippine Peso is worth in each period relative to its value in a base period. It is computed by getting the reciprocal of the CPI and multiplying the result by 100 given by the equation:

Headline Inflation 

Defined as the rate of change in the weighted average prices of all goods and services in the CPI basket while Core Inflation refers to the rate of change in the CPI which excludes the following item/commodity groups: rice, corn, fruits and vegetables, and fuel items.