1. Guimaras Headline Inflation

The headline inflation rate of Guimaras province moved faster to 0.8 percent in May 2025 from 0.5 percent in April 2025, bringing the provincial average inflation from January to April 2025 to 1.0 percent. The inflation rate for May 2024 was at 7.0 percent. (Figure 1)

1.1 Main Drivers to the Upward Trend of the Headline Inflation

The uptrend in the overall inflation in May 2025 primarily influenced by the faster annual increment in the index by the housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels at 3.7 percent during the month, from 1.5 percent in April 2025. the faster annual price change restaurants and accommodation services at 10.4 percent in May 2025 from 10.1 percent in the previous month and furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance at 0.1 percent from -0.3 percent a month ago also contributed to the quicker overall inflation.

Moreover, faster annual increases were noted in the indices of the following commodity groups in May 2025

a. Clothing and footwear, 2.6 percent from 2.5 percent; and 

b. Recreation, sport and culture, 0.7 percent from 0.7 percent.

In contrast, four of the thirteen commodity groups recorded slower inflation rates in May 2025 against April 2025:

a. Alcoholic beverages and tobacco, 7.7 percent from 8.3 percent; 

b. Transport, 1.2 % from 1.6 percent; 

c. Information and communication, 2.7 percent from 3.0 percent; and 

d. Personal care, and miscellaneous goods and services, 1.1 percent from 1.4 percent.

While the other four (4) commodities retained their previous month’s inflation rate (food and non alcoholic beverages: 1.8 percent, health: 1.4 percent, education services: 0.0, and financial services: 0.0 percent).

1.2 Main Contributors to the Headline Inflation

The top three commodity groups mainly contributing to the May 2025 overall inflation were:

a. Restaurants and accommodation services, with a 69.2 percent or 0.55 percentage points contribution to the province’s inflation rate; 

b. Housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels, with a 64.1 percent, or 0.51 percentage points inputs to April inflation; and 

c. Alcoholic beverages and tobacco, with a 47.5 percent or 0.38 percentage points impact on the overall inflation of Guimaras,

2. Headline Inflation per province in Region VI

As inflation rates across Western Visayas continue to decline, the province of Guimaras stands out for its more stable and controlled trajectory over the past 13 months. While other provinces in the region have experienced steep declines in inflation—some even entering deflation—Guimaras has maintained a relatively smooth and moderate slowdown, avoiding the more extreme shifts seen elsewhere.

From a high of 7.0 percent in May 2024, Guimaras brought its inflation rate down to 0.8 percent in May 2025. Over this 13-month period, the province’s inflation remained elevated through July (6.8%) but began to ease in the latter half of 2024. By December, inflation had declined to 2.8%, and continued trending downward in early 2025, reaching as low as 0.2 percent in March, before slightly increasing again in April (0.5%) and May (0.8%). This consistent tapering reflects a gradual deceleration, rather than a sudden drop.

In contrast, neighboring provinces such as Aklan and Antique noted their inflation rates collapse more abruptly. Aklan dropped from 4.5 percent in May 2024 to -0.7 percent in May 2025, while Antique plunged from 5.7 percent to -1.3 percent—the most severe decline in the region. Capiz followed a similar path, falling from 4.4 percent to 0.9 percent. Only Iloilo showed a relatively stable pattern, maintaining moderate inflation levels around 4 to 5 percent for much of 2024, and settling at 2.8 percent by May 2025.

3. Guimaras Purchasing Power of the Peso (PPP)

The Purchasing Power of the Peso (PPP) in Guimaras from May 2024 to May 2025 shows a generally declining trend with minor fluctuations, reflecting the ongoing erosion of the peso’s value. Since 2018, the base year, the peso has steadily depreciated, with its purchasing power hovering between 0.74 and 0.76 centavos throughout this period. This means that what one peso could buy in 2018 now requires more pesos, demonstrating the persistent effects of inflation.

The data reveals that in May and June 2024, the PPP was stable at 0.76. From July through September, it dipped slightly to 0.75, indicating a small decline in purchasing power. The peso then experienced a brief rebound in October and November, rising back to 0.76, before dropping again to 0.75 in December.

At the start of 2025, the peso’s purchasing power declined to its lowest point of 0.74 in January, marking the sharpest drop in the observed timeframe. However, it partially recovered to 0.75 in February and March, increased again to 0.76 in April, and then slightly declined to 0.75 in May 2025.

This cyclical pattern of minor recoveries and declines underscores the peso’s fragile purchasing power, as it struggles to maintain value against inflationary pressures. Overall, the trend highlights a gradual but steady depreciation of the peso since 2018, emphasizing how inflation continues to erode its real value over time.