Summary Inflation Report Consumer Price Index (2018=100): Guimaras May 2024

1.Guimaras Headline Inflation 

The Guimaras’ headline inflation or overall inflation increased to 7.0 percent in May 2024 from 6.8 percent in April 2024, bringing the provincial average inflation from January to May 2024 to 6.3 percent. In May 2023, the inflation rate was lower at 4.7 percent. (Figure 1, and Table 1)

1.1 Main Drivers to the Upward Trend of the Headline Inflation

 The Uptrend in the overall inflation in May 2024 was primarily influenced by the faster year-on-year increased in the heavily weighted Restaurants and Accommodation Services at 5.3 percent during the month, from 3.1 percent in April 2024. The faster annual growth rate of the Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages index at 11.1 percent in May 2024 from 10.9 percent in the previous month also contributed to the uptrend of the overall inflation.

In addition, a faster inflation rate was also noted in Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels at 1.1 percent during the month from 0.6 percent in April 2024.

In contrast, the following commodity groups registered slower inflation rates during the month:

 a. Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco, 9.3 percent to 5.9 percent; 

 b. Health, 7.9 percent to 7.5 percent; 

Moreover, Alcoholic beverages and Tobacco, Health, Clothing and Footwear, Recreation Sport and Culture, Education Services, and Financial Services retained their previous month’s annual rates. (Tables 2)

1.2 Main Contributors to the Headline Inflation 

The top three commodity groups contributing to the May 2024 overall inflation were the following:

a. Food and non-alcoholic beverages with 79.7percent share or 5.58 percentage points; 

b. Restaurants And Accommodation Services with 3.7 percent share or 0.26 percentage point; and

c. Transport with 3.6 percent share or 0.25 percentage point. 

2. Guimaras Core Inflation 

Core inflation, which excludes selected food and energy items, increased at 3.8 percent in May 2024 from 3.3 percent in the previous month. In May 2023, core inflation was higher at 6.1 percent. (Table 1) 

3. Headline Inflation per province in Region VI

Guimaras posted the highest headline inflation among the six provinces in Western Visayas (WV) with 7.0 percent, followed closely by Antique with 5.7 percent.

Iloilo reported the lowest food inflation in WV, recording 1.3 percent each, trailed by Negros Occidental, Capiz and Aklan with 4.2, 4.4 and 4.5 percent, respectively. 

In terms of inflation trend from April to May 2024, the province with the highest inflation increment was Capiz with 0.5 percentage points growth from 3.9 to 4.4 inflation, followed by Guimaras with a lump of 0.2 percentage points from 6.8 to 7.0 inflation.

Iloilo showed the lowest change rate at 2.6 percentage points difference from 3.9 inflation in April to 1.3 inflation in May, followed by Antique with -1.0 percentage points changes from 6.7 to 5.7 inflation, and Aklan with -0.40 percentage points variation from 4.9 to 4.5 inflation. 

Meanwhile, all provinces posted an erratic movement on their headline inflation rate except from January 2024 to May 2024. (Figure 2.)

4. Guimaras Purchasing Power of the Peso (PPP)

The average purchasing power of the peso (PPP) in Guimaras in May 2024 was at 0.76; this indicates that one peso in 2024 is now valued at 0.76 centavos. A 0.0 percentage point depreciation was also noted against the last month’s PPP. 

The data also showed that there have been erratic movements in the past 13 months. From 0.81 PPP in May 2023, it gradually slackened until 0.77 PPP in December 2023. 

The PPP continued to slow in January 2024 with 0.76 centavos until 0.75 centavos in March, but rise up a little bit at 0.76 during April and May. (Figure 2)

DEFINITION OF TERMS 

Inflation Rate 

Rate of change in the Consumer Price Index. Its formula is given by:

Year-on-year inflation 

Rate of change in the Consumer Price Index in a specific period of the current year relative to the same period in the previous year. 

Month-on-Month inflation 

Rate of change in the Consumer Price Index in a specific period of the current month relative to the previous month in the current year.

Consumer Price Index

Indicator of the change in the average prices of a fixed basket of goods and services commonly purchased by an average Filipino household for their day-to-day consumption relative to a base year. It is most widely used in the calculation of the inflation rate and purchasing power of the peso (PPP).

 Relative to this, daily, weekly, and bi-monthly price surveys are conducted nationwide at the provincial offices including the District Offices of the National Capital Region (NCR) to be able to generate monthly CPI for All Income Households and CPI for the Bottom 30% Income Households. Indicators produced from price surveys are regarded as designated statistics. 

The seasonally adjusted CPI provides comparisons after removing the seasonal variations that may affect the series. The formula used in computing the CPI is the weighted arithmetic mean of price relatives, the Laspeyre’s formula with a fixed base year period (2018) weights given by.

Purchasing Power of Peso (PPP) 

Indicates how much the Philippine Peso is worth in each period relative to its value in a base period. It is computed by getting the reciprocal of the CPI and multiplying the result by 100 given by the equation:

Headline Inflation

Defined as the rate of change in the weighted average prices of all goods and services in the CPI basket while Core Inflation refers to the rate of change in the CPI which excludes the following item/commodity groups: rice, corn, fruits and vegetables, and fuel items.