1. Guimaras Headline Inflation 

Guimaras' headline or overall inflation for all items slowed slightly to 2.7 percent in January 2025, down from 2.8 percent in December 2024. Additionally, there was a 1.9 percentage points difference in the headline inflation in January 2024. The previous year recorded a provincial average inflation rate of 4.6 percent.

1.1 Main Drivers of the Downward Trend in Headline Inflation

The decrease in overall inflation in January 2025 was driven by a decline in the year on-year price change in Health, which dropped to -0.4 percent from 2.7 percent in December 2024. The slower annual price changes in Recreation, Sport, and Culture (4.1 percent from 5.7 percent in December 2024), Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages (4.2 percent from 4.6 percent), Clothing and Footwear (2.3 percent from 2.4 percent), and Furnishings, Household Equipment, and Routine Household Maintenance (-0.4 percent from -0.3 percent the previous month) also contributed to the slower inflation rate.

Conversely, the following commodity groups experienced faster inflation in January 2025 compared to December 2024:

• Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco: 4.6 percent, up from 1.5 percent 

• Transportation: 2.4 percent, up from 1.2 percent 

• Personal Care and Miscellaneous Goods and Services: 1.7 percent, up from 1.5 percent

Among the commodities, the inflation rates for Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas, and Other Fuels; Information and Communication; Education Services; Restaurants and Accommodation Services; and Financial Services remained unchanged, with inflation percentages of 2.6 percent, 3.3 percent, 0 percent, -5.7 percent, and 0 percent, respectively, for December 2024 and January 2025.

1.2 Main Contributors to Headline Inflation

Three major commodities primarily influenced the overall inflation in the province in January 2025.

Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages contributed the largest share, accounting for 75.4 percent of the overall inflation or 2.04 percentage points, with rice products making up the largest portion, at 16 percent. This indicates that the increase in rice prices significantly impacted total food expenditure.

Additionally, Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas, and Other Fuels played a considerable role in the province’s inflation, accounting for 14.8 percent, or 0.40 percentage points. Electricity and other fuels had a substantial impact on the increase in this commodity’s cost.

Among the given commodities, transportation was the third highest contributor to the province’s overall inflation at 6.0 percent or 0.16 percentage points. Passenger transport services, primarily from passenger transport by sea and inland waterways had a notable 42 percent inflation rate.

2. Guimaras Core Inflation

The overall core inflation for Guimaras declined from 1.7 percent in December 2024 to 1.5 percent in January 2025. Core inflation excludes the changes in the costs of food and energy, providing a clearer view of the underlying inflation trend in the province.

The decline in core inflation generally suggests a price drop in housing, transportation, and personal services, which indicates an increase in consumers' purchasing power.

Likewise, commodities such as food and non-alcoholic beverages, clothing and footwear, furnishings and household equipment, and recreation, sports, and culture experienced a reduction in core inflation in January 2025 compared to the previous month.

Although overall core inflation declined during the given period, alcoholic beverages and tobacco, and personal care and miscellaneous goods and services recorded a rise in core inflation, while other sectors retained the inflation rate from the previous month.

Nevertheless, as inflation levels off in certain commodity groups, other sectors experience escalating costs, driving an upward trend in the inflation rate of the province.

3. Headline Inflation per Province in Region VI

The headline inflation in Western Visayas experienced a rise in the first quarter of 2024 with a slight decline at the end of the year. Aklan, Antique, and Iloilo showed an increment in January 2025. Conversely, Capiz, Guimaras and Negros Occidental demonstrated otherwise.

Among the provinces, Antique had the highest inflation in mid-2024, reaching 6.7 percent in April before gradually decreasing to 1.5 percent in December. It then slightly increased to 2.3 percent in January 2025. Guimaras followed a similar trend, peaking at 7.2 percent in April, dropping to 2.8 percent in December, and rising again to 2.7 percent in January 2025.

Iloilo had the lowest inflation at the start of 2024, at 1.2 percent in January, but steadily rose to 5.6 percent in August. It then dropped to 4.2 percent in December before increasing again to 5.4 percent in January 2025.

Meanwhile, Aklan saw a sharp drop from 6.4 percent in July to 1.3 percent in November, before slightly rising to 2.3 percent in January 2025. Capiz followed a steady pattern, peaking at 4.7 percent in July, decreasing to 2.8 percent in December, and slightly increasing to 2.5 percent in January 2025.

Negros Occidental had its highest inflation at 4.9 percent in July, before gradually declining to 3.7 percent in December and slightly rising to 2.7 percent in January 2025.

Overall, while inflation in Western Visayas was high in the first half of 2024, it gradually eased in the later months.

4. Guimaras Purchasing Power of the Peso

The Purchasing Power of the Peso (PPP) in Guimaras represents the peso’s actual worth based on its capacity to buy goods and services, considering inflation.

A PPP of 1.00 means the peso holds its full value relative to the base year, while a lower value indicates a decline in purchasing power due to inflation. Since 2018, the base year, Guimaras has experienced a steady drop in PPP, reflecting a gradual depreciation in the peso's value.

In January 2024, the Purchasing Power Equivalent (PPE) in Guimaras was 0.76, indicating that one peso could only buy 77 percent of the goods and services it could purchase in 2018. This depreciation continued until March, then it rose back to 0.76 in the following months, before dropping to 0.75 in July. The same pattern of fluctuations persisted until the end of the year.

However, in January 2025, the peso reached its lowest value compared to the previous year, at 0.74. This suggests that one peso could only buy 74 percent of the goods and services it could purchase in 2018.

As fluctuations hover between 0.76 and 0.74, there has been a steady reduction in consumers' purchasing power, which significantly contributes to inflation across various commodities.

DEFINITION OF TERMS

Inflation Rate

Year-on-year inflation

Rate of change in the Consumer Price Index in a specific period of the current year relative to the same period in the previous year.

Month-on-month inflation 

Rate of change in the Consumer Price Index in a specific period of the current month relative to the same period in the current year.

Consumer Price Index

Indicator of the change in the average prices of a fixed basket of goods and services commonly purchased by an average Filipino household for their day-to day consumption relative to a base year. It is most widely used in the calculation of the inflation rate and purchasing power of the peso (PPP).

Relative to this, daily, weekly, and bi-monthly price surveys are conducted nationwide at the provincial offices including the District Offices of the National Capital Region (NCR) to be able to generate monthly CPI for All Income Households and CPI for the Bottom 30% Income Households. Indicators produced from price surveys are regarded as designated statistics.

The seasonally adjusted CPI provides comparisons after removing the seasonal variations that may affect the series. The formula used in computing the CPI is the weighted arithmetic mean of price relatives, the Laspeyre’s formula with a fixed base year period (2018) weights given by.

Purchasing Power of Peso (PPP) 

Indicates how much the Philippine Peso is worth in each period relative to its value in a base period. It is computed by getting the reciprocal of the CPI and multiplying the result by 100 given by the equation:

Headline Inflation

Defined as the rate of change in the weighted average prices of all goods and services in the CPI basket while Core Inflation refers to the rate of change in the CPI which excludes the following item/commodity groups: rice, corn, fruits and vegetables, and fuel items.