1. Guimaras Headline Inflation 

The headline inflation rate of Guimaras province moved faster to 0.5 percent in April 2025 from 0.2 percent in March 2025, bringing the provincial average inflation from January to April 2025 to 1.0 percent. The inflation rate for April 2024 was at 6.8 percent. (Figure 1)

1.1 Main Drivers to the Upward Trend of the Headline Inflation

The uptrend in the overall inflation in April 2025 primarily influenced by the faster annual increment in the index by the restaurants and accommodation services at 10.1 percent during the month, from -3.2 percent in March 2025. The faster annual price change transport at 1.6 percent in April 2025 from -0.1 percent in the previous month and housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels at 1.5 percent from 0.9 percent a month ago also contributed to the quicker overall inflation.

Moreover, faster annual increases were noted in the indices of the following commodity groups in April 2025:

a. Health, 1.4 percent from -0.3 percent; 

b. Alcoholic beverages and tobacco, 8.3 percent from 7.9 percent; and 

c. Clothing and footwear, 2.5 percent from 2.4 percent.

In contrast, five of the thirteen commodity groups recorded slower inflation rates in April 2025 against March 2025:

a. Food and non-alcoholic beverages, -1.8 percent from -0.7 percent; 

b. Furnishings, household equipment, and routine household maintenance, -0.3 % from 0.2 percent; c. Information and communication, 3.0 percent from 3.3 percent; 

d. Recreation, sport and culture, 0.4 percent from 1.1 percent; and 

e. Personal care, and miscellaneous goods and services, 1.4 percent from 1.7 percent.

While the other two (2) commodities retained their previous month’s inflation rate (education services: 0.0 percent, and financial services; 0.0 percent).

1.2 Main Contributors to the Headline Inflation

The top three commodity groups mainly contributing to the April 2025 overall inflation were:

a. Restaurants and accommodation services, with a 93.9 percent or 0.47 percentage points contribution to the province’s inflation rate; 

b. Alcoholic beverages and tobacco, with a 72.0 percent, or 0.36 percentage points inputs to April inflation; and 

c. Housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels followed closely with a 36.7 percent or 0.18 percentage points impact on the overall inflation of Guimaras,

2. Guimaras Core Inflation

Core inflation, which excludes selected food and energy items, moved faster to 2.7 percent in April 2025 from 1.5 percent in the previous month. In April 2024, core inflation was higher at 3.3 percent.

The uptrend in Guimaras’ core inflation mainly driven by restaurants and accommodation services with 10.1 percent core inflation, sharing 74.1 %, followed by transport with 6.3 percent core inflation, splitting 18.3 percent and health with 1.4 percent core inflation, imparting 5.6 percent. 

In terms of contribution to overall core inflation in April 2025, restaurants and accommodation services showed the largest impact of 29.7 % or 0.80 percentage points.

3. Headline Inflation per province in Region VI

From April 2024 to April 2025, the inflation rates across the six provinces in Western Visayas—Aklan, Antique, Capiz, Iloilo, Guimaras, and Negros Occidental—displayed noticeable shifts.

In April 2024, inflation was highest in Antique at 6.7%, followed by Guimaras at 6.8%. By April 2025, these rates significantly dropped, with Aklan and Antique recording negative inflation, while Guimaras moderated to 0.5%. Iloilo maintained a relatively stable trend, recording 3.9% in April 2024 and 3.2% in April 2025. Negros Occidental also showed moderate changes, from 4.4% to 2.1% during the same period

Throughout 2024, the highest inflation rates were observed in May, July, and August. Guimaras reached its peak in May at 7.0%, while Aklan and Antique experienced their highest rates in July. Iloilo's inflation peaked in August, while Negros Occidental saw its highest rate in July. Towards the end of 2024, inflation began to decline across all provinces, with noticeable drops starting in September and continuing into the early months of 2025. By March and April of 2025, inflation rates had reached their lowest levels for most provinces, with Aklan and Antique experiencing deflation.

In terms of stability, Iloilo maintained the most consistent inflation rates, while Antique showed the most variation over the observed months. On average, Iloilo registered the highest inflation rate among the six provinces, while Aklan had the lowest.

4. Guimaras Purchasing Power of the Peso (PPP)

The Purchasing Power of the Peso (PPP) in Guimaras from April 2024 to April 2025 illustrates a fluctuating yet generally declining trend, reflecting the continuous erosion of the peso's value. Since 2018, which serves as the base year, the peso has consistently depreciated, with its value standing at only 0.75 centavos by March 2025. This indicates that what could be bought with one peso in 2018 now requires more, highlighting the impact of inflation over the years.

The data for the past 13 months shows slight variations in PPP. In April 2024, the peso's purchasing power was 0.76, maintaining this value through May and June. However, from July to September 2024, it dipped to 0.75, reflecting a weakening in its real value. A brief recovery was observed in October and November 2024, where the PPP returned to 0.76, only to decline again to 0.75 in December.

As 2025 began, the peso's value dropped to its lowest at 0.74 in January, marking the most significant depreciation within the period. The peso slightly regained strength in February and March 2025, reaching 0.75, and further improved to 0.76 by April 2025. This cyclical movement of recovery and decline underscores the ongoing struggle of the peso to maintain its purchasing power against inflationary pressures.

Overall, the data reflects a fragile purchasing power marked by temporary rebounds amidst a long-term downward trend. The consistent depreciation since 2018 emphasizes how inflation continues to diminish the real value of the peso over time.

DEFINITION OF TERMS

Inflation Rate

Rate of change in the Consumer Price Index. Its formula is given by:

Year-on-year inflation 

Rate of change in the Consumer Price Index in a specific period of the current year relative to the same period in the previous year.

Month-on-Month inflation 

Rate of change in the Consumer Price Index in a specific period of the current month relative to the previous month in the current year.

Consumer Price Index 

Indicator of the change in the average prices of a fixed basket of goods and services commonly purchased by an average Filipino household for their day-to-day consumption relative to a base year. It is most widely used in the calculation of the inflation rate and purchasing power of the peso (PPP).

Relative to this, daily, weekly, and bi-monthly price surveys are conducted nationwide at the provincial offices including the District Offices of the National Capital Region (NCR) to be able to generate monthly CPI for All Income Households and CPI for the Bottom 30% Income Households. Indicators produced from price surveys are regarded as designated statistics.

The seasonally adjusted CPI provides comparisons after removing the seasonal variations that may affect the series. The formula used in computing the CPI is the weighted arithmetic mean of price relatives, the Laspeyre’s formula with a fixed base year period (2018) weights given by.

Purchasing Power of Peso (PPP) 

Indicates how much the Philippine Peso is worth in each period relative to its value in a base period. It is computed by getting the reciprocal of the CPI and multiplying the result by 100 given by the equation:

Headline Inflation 

Defined as the rate of change in the weighted average prices of all goods and services in the CPI basket while Core Inflation refers to the rate of change in the CPI which excludes the following item/commodity groups: rice, corn, fruits and vegetables, and fuel items.