1. Guimaras Headline Food Inflation 

The headline food inflation rate of Guimaras province dropped to 9.8 percent in June 2024 from 11.6 percent in May 2024. This 1.8 percentage point decrease indicates a deceleration in the rise of food prices month-over-month. Moreover, the June 2024 food inflation rate is 2.9 percentage points higher than the 6.9 percent recorded in June 2023. (Table 1 and Figure 1)

As shown in Table 1, Guimaras' food inflation is even higher than the regional and national levels in May and June 2024.

1.1 Main Drivers to the Downtrend of the Headline Food Inflation

The deceleration of food inflation in May 2024 was primarily influenced by the monthly decrease in Cereals and cereal products, with a 20.8 percent inflation during the month, from 24.4 percent in the previous month accounting for 61.1 percent share to the June 2024 food inflation rate in Guimaras. 

Also sharing to the downtrend of food inflation were the slow increases observed in Fish and other seafood at 2.3 percent from 5.6 percent in May 2024 with 32.6 percent share to June 2024 food inflation, and Ready-made food and other food products n.e.c. with 11.0 percent from 15.1 percent in the previous month with 6.3 percent share.

In contrast, the following commodity groups registered faster food inflation rates during the month:

1.      Meat and other parts of slaughtered land animals at 16.6 percent from 16.2 percent in the previous month; 

2.      Milk, other dairy products and eggs at 4.4 percent from 3.8 percent; 

3.      Oils and fats at -1.3 percent from -1.8 percent;

4.      Fruits and nuts at -16.0 percent from -17.1 percent; and

5.      Vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas and pulses with a recorded food inflation of 10.2 percent from 9.4 percent in the previous month. 

The top three commodity groups contributing to the June 2024 overall food inflation were the following:

1.      Cereals and cereal products, with a 71.3 percent contribution or 6.99 percentage points; 

2.      Meat and other parts of slaughtered land animals with 19.5 percent contribution or 1.91 percentage points; and 

3.      Vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas and pulses with 6.6 percent contribution or 0.64 percentage points

2. Food Inflation Rate for the Bottom 30% Income Households

The food inflation rate for the bottom 30% income households in Guimaras moved at a slower pace of 11.4 percent in June 2024 from 13.3 in the previous month. In June 2023, the food inflation was at 6.7 percent. 

The highest food inflation rate for the bottom 30% income households was 13.3 percent recorded in May 2024. Meanwhile, the lowest was seen in July 2023 with a 3.4 percent food inflation rate. 

DEFINITION OF TERMS

Inflation Rate

Rate of change in the Consumer Price Index. Its formula is given by:

Where: CPI₂ is the current period

             CPI₁ is the CPI in the previous period.

Year-on-year inflation 

Rate of change in the Consumer Price Index in a specific period of the current year relative to the same period in the previous year.

Month-on-Month inflation 

Rate of change in the Consumer Price Index in a specific period of the current month relative to the previous month in the current year.

Consumer Price Index

Indicator of the change in the average prices of a fixed basket of goods and services commonly purchased by an average Filipino household for their day-to-day consumption relative to a base year. It is most widely used in the calculation of the inflation rate and purchasing power of the peso (PPP). 

Relative to this, daily, weekly, and bi-monthly price surveys are conducted nationwide at the provincial offices including the District Offices of the National Capital Region (NCR) to be able to generate monthly CPI for All Income Households and CPI for the Bottom 30% Income Households. Indicators produced from price surveys are regarded as designated statistics. 

The seasonally adjusted CPI provides comparisons after removing the seasonal variations that may affect the series. The formula used in computing the CPI is the weighted arithmetic mean of price relatives, the Laspeyre’s formula with a fixed base year period (2018) weights given by.

Purchasing Power of Peso (PPP)

Headline Inflation 

Defined as the rate of change in the weighted average prices of all goods and services in the CPI basket while Core Inflation refers to the rate of change in the CPI which excludes the following item/commodity groups: rice, corn, fruits and vegetables, and fuel items.