1. Guimaras Inflation for Bottom 30 % Income HHs

 The Guimaras’ inflation for the bottom 30 % income HHs soared to 8.8 percent in May 2024 from 8.6 percent in April 2024, bringing the provincial average inflation for low-income from January to May 2024 to 7.7 percent. In May 2023, the said inflation rate was slower at 5.5 percent. (Figure 1 and Table 1)

1.1 Main Drivers to the Upward Trend of the Bottom 30% Income HHs’ Inflation

The uptrend inflation in May 2024 for the low-income HHs was primarily influenced by the faster year-on-year increase in the heavily weighted food and non-alcoholic beverages at 12.7 percent during the month, from 12.2 percent in April 2024. The rapid annual inflation growth rate of Restaurant and Accommodation Services at 5.1 percent in May 2024 from 2.9 percent in the previous month also contributed to the uptrend of the overall bottom 30% income HHs’ inflation. Transport also brought a significant share to the overall inflation for low-income HHs in May which is 2.8 percent higher than the 1.8 percent in April 2024.

Food and non-alcoholic beverages (62.1%), Restaurant and Accommodation Services (15.6%), and Transport shared the highest of 62.1%, 15.6% and 10.3%, respectively in the overall inflation of bottom 30% income households in Guimaras in May 2024.

Other commodities which showed quicker inflation rates for low income HHs in May 2024 were:

a. Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and other Fuels, 1.4 percent from 1.0 percent; 

b. Information Communication, -0.5 percent from -1.1 percent

In contrast, the following commodity groups registered slower inflation rates during the month:

a. Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco, 3.7 percent from 9.9 percent; 

b. Clothing and Footwear, 3.5 percent from 3.6 percent; 

c. Furnishings, Household Equipment and Routine Household Maintenance, 3.5 percent from 3.6 percent 

d. Health, 0.7 percent from 0.8 percent; 

e. Personal Care, and Miscellaneous Goods and Services, 4.1 percent from 4.4 percent

Moreover, Recreation, Sport and Culture, Education Services and Financial Services retained their previous month’s annual rates. (Table 2)

1.2 Main Contributors to the Bottom 30 % Income HHs’ Inflation

The top three commodity groups with major contribution to the May 2024 overall bottom 30% income HHs inflation were the following:

a. Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages with 88.8 percent share or 7.82 percentage points; 

b. Restaurants and Accommodation Services with 2.0 percent share or 0.18 percentage points;       and 

c. Furnishings, Household Equipment and Routine Household Maintenance, with 1.9 percent                share or 0.16 percentage points.

2. Food Inflation for Bottom 30% Income HHs

Food inflation for low-income HHs rose to 13.3 percent in May 2024 from 12.7 percent in April 2024. In May 2023, food inflation for the bottom 30% income HHs was lower at 7.9 percent. (Table 3)

2.1 Main Drivers to the Upward Trend of Food Inflation for Low-income HHs

The acceleration of food inflation for low-income HHs in May 2024 pushed by the year on-year price increase in the fish and other seafood at 4.1 percent in May 2024 from the 1.0 percent annual decline in the previous month. It was followed by cereals and cereal products with an inflation rate 26.3 percent from an annual drop of 25.6 percent in April 2024.

The index of ready-made food and other food products not elsewhere classified also contributed to the uptrend as it recorded a faster annual increase of 26.5 percent during the month from 19.4 percent in April 2024.

Fish and other seafood; cereals and cereal products; and ready-made food and other food products not elsewhere classified were the top 3 food items which showed a huge share of the April food inflation for low-income with 51.5%, 24.2%, and 14.2%, respectively.

In addition, a quicker inflation rate in Meat and other parts of slaughtered land animals at 16.6 percent in May 2024 from 15.5 percent in the previous month were observed, Milk, other dairy products and eggs at 3.2 percent during the month from 2.8 percent in the previous month, also in Oils and fats at -4.3 percent in May from -4.9 percent a month ago.

On the contrary, four food groups exhibited slower price changes: 

a. Fruits and nuts, -15.5 percent from 4.3 percent; 

b. Vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas and pulses, 9.1 percent from 13.7 percent; 

c. Sugar, confectionery and desserts, -10.4 percent from -9.5 percent

2.2 Main Contributors to the Food Inflation for Low-income HHs

Food inflation shared 86.6 percent or 7.62 percentage points to the overall inflation in May 2024. The top three food groups in terms of contribution to the food inflation during the month were the following:

a. Cereals and cereal products, which include rice, corn, flour, bread and other bakery products,      pasta products, and other cereals, with a share of 79.3 percent or 10.55 percentage points;

b. Meat and other parts of slaughtered land animals with a share of 10.4 percent or 1.38                        percentage points; and

c. Fish and other seafood with a share of 5.9 percent or 0.79 percentage points.

3. Bottom 30% Income HHs’ Inflation per province in Region VI

Guimaras and Antique posted the highest low-income HHs inflation among the six provinces in Western Visayas (WV) with 8.8 and 7.5 percent, respectively, followed closely by Aklan with 6.6 percent.

Negros Occidental reported the lowest inflation for the bottom 30% income HHs in WV, recording 5.0 percent, trailed by Capiz and Negros Occidental with 5.3 percent, correspondingly.

In terms of inflation trend from April to May 2024, the province with the highest inflation increment was Iloilo, with 1.80 percentage points growth from 3.5 to 5.3 inflation, followed by Capiz with a lump of 0.70 percentage points from 4.6 to 5.3 inflation, and Guimaras with 0.20 percentage points increase from 8.6 to 8.8 inflation.

Antique showed the slowest inflation rate changes with a -1.60percentage points difference, with 7.5 inflation from 9.1 inflation in April, followed by Aklan and Negros Occidental, which showed -0.50 percentage points change with 6.6 and 5.0 inflation in May from 7.1 and 5.3 inflation a month ago, correspondingly.

Meanwhile, from January 2024 to May 2024, all provinces posted an erratic movement on their headline inflation rate except for the provinces of Guimaras, Capiz, and Iloilo, which posted an upward trend. (Figure 2.)