1. Guimaras Inflation for Bottom 30% Income HHs

The Guimaras inflation for the bottom 30% income HHs slowed further to 0.7% in March 2025 from 8.5% in February 2025, bringing the provincial average inflation to 2.1% for low-income from January to March 2025. In March 2024, the inflation rate was higher at 8.5%. (Figure 1 and Table 1)

1.1 Main Drivers to the Downward Trend of the Bottom 30% Income HHs’ Inflation

The slow inflation in March 2025 for the low-income HHs was primarily influenced by the dwindling year-on-year price changes in the heavily weighted food and non-alcoholic beverages at 0.0% during the month, from 1.5% in February 2025. The decreasing annual inflation rate of housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels at 0.6% in March 2025 from 2.2% in the previous month also contributed to the slower overall inflation of the bottom 30% income HHs.

In contrast, four commodity groups showed faster inflation rates in March 2025: 

a. Alcoholic beverages and tobacco, 10.1% from 4.2% 

b. Health, 2.7% from 2.2% 

c. Transport, -0.1% from -0.7%, and 

d. Restaurants and accommodation services, -3.2% from -8.2%

Meanwhile, clothing and footwear (1.5%), furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance (1.2 %), information and communication (5.5%), recreation, sport and culture (1.2%), education services (0.0%), financial services (0.0%), and personal care, and miscellaneous goods and services (1.6%), retained their previous month’s annual rates.

1.2 Main Contributors to the Bottom 30% Income HHs’ Inflation

The top three commodity groups with significant contribution to the March 2025 overall bottom 30% income HHs inflation are the following:

a. Alcoholic beverages and tobacco with 77.4% contribution or 0.54 percentage points 

b. Information and communication with 11.3% impact or 0.08 percentage points; and 

c. Housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels, with 8.23% bearing or 0.06 percentage points.

2. Bottom 30% Income HHs’ Inflation per province in Region VI

From March 2024 to March 2025, inflation rates for the bottom 30% income households in Western Visayas exhibited a generally declining trend across all six provinces.

At the start of the period, Antique, Guimaras, and Aklan registered some of the highest inflation rates at 8.5%, 8.5%, and 5.4%, respectively.

By March 2025, these provinces saw significant drops, with Antique at -1.3%, Aklan at -0.1%, and Guimaras at 0.7%, reflecting a substantial easing in price pressures.

Among the provinces of Western Visayas, Antique experienced the steepest decline, dropping by 9.8 percentage points over the 13-month series.

Meanwhile, Capiz and Iloilo recorded relatively stable inflation patterns, ending at 2.7% and 4.3% in March 2025.

Negros Occidental, which started at 2.7% in March 2024, also saw a gradual increase and ended at 3.2%.

Throughout this period, inflation movements were erratic, with sharp rises and dips particularly evident from June to October 2024, where provinces such as Iloilo and Aklan showed notable spikes and subsequent declines.

Overall, the downward trend in early 2025 suggested cooling inflationary pressures, which may offer slight relief to low-income households across the region.

Concepts and Definitions of Terms

Consumer Price Index. It is an indicator of the change in the average retail prices of a fixed basket of goods and services commonly purchased by an average Filipino household. It shows how much on the average, prices of goods and services have increased or decreased from a particular reference period known as base year.

Core Inflation. A measure of inflation that aims to capture the permanent component of the inflationary process that can be influenced by monetary policy.

Inflation Rate. Refers to the annual rate of change or the year-on-year change of the CPI expressed in percent. Inflation is interpreted in terms of declining purchasing power of money.

Price. The amount or value paid in exchange for a commodity or a service rendered.