1. Guimaras Inflation for Bottom 30 % Income HHs 

The Guimaras’ inflation for the bottom 30 % income HHs slowed to 7.6 percent in June 2024 from 8.8 percent in May 2024, bringing the provincial average inflation for low-income from January to June 2024 to 7.7 percent. In June 2023, the said inflation rate was slower at 4.5 percent. (Figure 1 and Table 1)

1.1 Main Drivers to the Downward Trend of the Bottom 30% Income HHs’ Inflation

The downtrend inflation in June 2024 for the low-income HHs was primarily influenced by the slower year-on-year increase in the heavily weighted food and non-alcoholic beverages at 10.9 percent during the month, from 12.7 percent in May 2024, sharing 91.1 percent to the provincial inflation for low income HHs. The dwindling annual inflation growth rate of Clothing and Footwear at 2.5 percent in June 2024 from 3.5 percent in the previous month also contributed to the downtrend of the overall bottom 30% income HHs’ inflation, sharing 2.4. percent to the June Inflation for bottom 30% income HHs.

Likewise, Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco shared 1.9 percent to the total inflation for low earners posting a 3.1 percent inflation higher against 3.7 percent in May 2024. 

Other commodities which showed gradual inflation rates for low income HHs in June 2024 were:

1.       Health, -0.3 percent from 0.7 percent; 

2.        Personal Care, And Miscellaneous Goods and Services, 3.5 percent from 4.1 percent

3.       Transport, 2.5 percent from 2.8 percent

4.       Recreation, Sport and Culture, 14.3 percent from 14.9 percent

5.       Furnishings, Household Equipment and Routine Household Maintenance, 3.4 percent from 3.5 percent

In contrast, Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels showed a faster rate of 2.2 percent in June 2024 form 3.5 percent against its previous month data. 

Moreover, Information and Communication, Education Services, Restaurants and Accommodation Services, and Financial Services retained their previous month’s annual rates. (Table 2)

1.2 Main Contributors to the Bottom 30 % Income HHs’ Inflation

1.       Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages with 87.4 percent share or 6.64 percentage points;

2.      Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels with 3.4 percent share or 0.26 percentage points; and

3.       Restaurants and Accommodation Services, with 2.3 percent share or 0.18 percentage points.

2. Food Inflation for Bottom 30% Income HHs

Food inflation for low-income HHs dropped to 11.4 percent in June 2024 from 13.3 percent in May 2024. In June 2023, food inflation for the bottom 30% income HHs was lower at 6.7 percent. (Table 3)

2.1 Main Drivers to the downward Trend of Food Inflation for Low-income HHs

The deceleration of food inflation for low-income HHs in June 2024 pushed by the year-on-year price change in the Cereals and cereal products specifically on rice with 26.7 percent inflation from 31.6 percent in May 2024, sharing 75.6 percent to the overall food inflation for low income HHs in the province. It was followed by Fish and other seafood with 2.4 percent inflation from 4.1 percent annual price change, sharing 15.9 percent to the total food inflation for low earners Guimarasnon.

The index of ready-made food and other food products not elsewhere classified also contributed to the downtrend by 6.5 percent as it recorded a slower inflation of 20.7 percent in June 2024 from 26.5 percent a month ago.

On the contrary, five food groups exhibited faster price changes:

1.       Meat and other parts of slaughtered land animals, 17.3 percent from 16.6 percent;

2.       Milk, other dairy products and eggs, 4.0 percent from 3.2 percent;

3.       Oils and fats, -4.1 percent from -4.3 percent

4.       Fruits and nuts, -14.5 percent from -15.5 percent

5.      Vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas and pulses, 9.2 percent from 9.1 percent.

Moreover, only Sugar, confectionery and desserts retained their previous month’s annual rates at -10.4 percent.

2.2 Main Contributors to the Food Inflation for Low-income HHs

Food inflation shared 85.5 percent or 6.47 percentage points to the overall inflation in June 2024. The top three food groups in terms of highest contribution to the food inflation during the month were the following:

1.     Cereals and cereal products, which include rice, corn, flour, bread and other bakery products, pasta products, and other cereals, with a share of 67.0 percent or 5.09 percentage points;

2.      Meat and other parts of slaughtered land animals with a share of 10.8 percent or 0.82 percentage points; and

3.      Vegetables, tubers, plantains, cooking bananas and pulses with a share of 3.9 percent or 0.29 percentage points.

3. Bottom 30% Income HHs’ Inflation per province in Region VI

Aklan, Guimaras and Antique posted the highest low-income HHs inflation among the six provinces in Western Visayas (WV) with 8.9, 7.6 and 7.4 percent, respectively, followed closely by Iloilo with 6.0 percent.

Negros Occidental reported the lowest inflation for the bottom 30% income HHs in WV, recording 5.2 percent, tailed by Capiz with 5.8 percent.

In terms of inflation trend from May to June 2024, the province with the highest inflation increment was Guimaras, with 1.2 percentage points growth from 8.8 to 7.6 percent inflation, followed by Antique with a lump of 0.1 percentage points from 7.5 to 7.4 inflation and Negros Occidental with -0.2 percentage points gap from 5.0 to 5.2 percent inflation. 

Aklan showed the slowest inflation rate changes with a -2.3-percentage points difference, from 6.6 to 8.9 percent inflation, followed by Iloilo with which showed -0.6 percentage points change from 5.4 to 6.0 percent annual price change, and Capiz with -0.5 percentage points break from 5.3 to 5.8 percent inflation. 

Meanwhile, from January 2024 to June 2024, all provinces posted an erratic movement on their headline inflation rate (Figure 2.)