1. Guimaras Inflation for Bottom 30% Income HHs 

The Guimaras inflation for the bottom 30% income HHs slowed further to 0.2 % in April 2025 from 0.7 % in March 2025, bringing the provincial average inflation to 1.6 for low income from January to April 2025. In April 2024, the inflation rate was higher at 8.6 %. (Figure 1 and Table 1)

1.1 Main Drivers to the Downward Trend of the Bottom 30% Income HHs’ Inflation

The slow inflation in April 2025 for the low-income HHs was primarily influenced by the dwindling year-on-year price changes in the heavily weighted food and non-alcoholic beverages at -1.8 % during the month, from 0.0 % in March 2025. The decreasing annual inflation rate of furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance at 0.2 % in April 2025 from 1.2 % in the previous month and personal care, and miscellaneous goods and services at 1.0 % from 1.6 % also contributed to the slower overall inflation of the bottom 30% income HHs.

In contrast, four commodity groups showed faster inflation rates in April 2025 from March 2025: 

a. Alcoholic beverages and tobacco, 10.2% from 10.1 %, 

b. Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels, 1.3 % from 0.6 %, 

c. Transport, 0.8 % from -0.1 %, and 

d. Restaurants and accommodation services, 10.3 % from -3.2 %

While, health (2.7%), information and communication (5.5%), education services (0.0%), financial services (0.0 %), and financial services (0.0 %), retained their previous month’s annual rates.

1.2 Main Contributors to the Bottom 30% Income HHs’ Inflation

The top three commodity groups with major contribution to the April 2025 overall bottom 30% income HHs inflation were the following:

a. Alcoholic beverages and tobacco with 257.5 % contribution or 0.51 percentage points; 

b. Restaurants and accommodation services with 164.4 % impact or 0.33 percentage points; and 

c. Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels, with 57.5 % bearing or 0.12 percentage points.

2. Bottom 30% Income HHs’ Inflation per province in Region VI

WV inflation shows decline; Guimaras leads with continued decrease in the past 13 mos

Inflation rates across Western Visayas showed a marked decline over the past 13 months, from April 2024 to April 2025, with Guimaras standing out for its steady and consistent reduction.

In April 2025, Guimaras posted an inflation rate of 0.2%, significantly lower than its peak of 8.8% in May 2024. Unlike other provinces that experienced more abrupt changes, Guimaras's inflation rate decreased gradually and consistently over the past year, from 6.4% in August 2024 to 3.9% in December 2024, followed by 0.7% in March 2025 and 0.2% in April 2025.

In contrast, Aklan and Antique recorded more sharp declines in inflation, with both provinces experiencing negative inflation rates in April 2025. Aklan recorded -2.6%, while Antique posted -3.0%, after seeing inflation rates peak at 8.9% in Aklan (June 2024) and 9.1% in Antique (April 2024). Both provinces began their decline earlier in February 2025, leading to a faster and more dramatic drop compared to Guimaras.

Aside from Guimaras, Capiz exhibited a consistent decrease in inflation, moving from 3.7% in January 2025 to 2.3% in April 2025, reflecting a steady reduction from its peak of 5.8% in June 2024.

Similarly, Iloilo noted a gradual decrease in inflation, dropping from 5.9% in January 2025 to 2.3% in April 2025, after peaking at 7.4% in August and October 2024.

Negros Occidental ended April 2025 with an inflation rate of 2.0%, down from 5.4% in July 2024, showing a moderate reduction similar to Capiz and Iloilo but without the dramatic shifts seen in Aklan and Antique.

Overall, while Guimaras showed the most gradual and consistent reduction in inflation over the past 13 months, Capiz and Iloilo also experienced steady decreases. In comparison, Aklan and Antique saw significant drops, with both provinces entering negative inflation territory. The data highlights a variety of inflationary trends across the region, with some provinces showing stable declines and others experiencing sharper, more abrupt changes.

Concepts and Definitions of Terms

The CPI is an indicator of the change in the average retail prices of a fixed basket of goods and services commonly purchased by households relative to a base year.

Bottom 30% Household: Families that belong in the low-income bracket and the most vulnerable to economic and social difficulties. Based on the “relative poverty” concept, a household whose per capita income falls below the bottom 30% of the cumulative per capita distribution belongs to the low-income group.

One of the common characteristics of households in this income group is that expenditures on food items account for a more substantial proportion of expenditures compared to expenditures on other items. Price changes in food, therefore, would be expected to greatly affect this income group more than any other group

Uses of CPI

• The CPI is most widely used in the calculation of the inflation rate and purchasing power of peso. It is a major statistical series used for economic analysis and as monitoring indicator of the government economic policy. 

• Measures the composite change in the consumer prices in various commodities overtime.

Computation of CPI

The computation of CPI involves consideration of the following important points:

a. Base Period – The reference date or base period is the benchmark or reference date or period at which the index is taken as equal to 100. 

b. Market Basket – A sample of the thousands of varieties of goods purchased for consumption and the services availed by the households in the country selected to represent the composite price behavior of all goods and services purchased by consumers. 

c. Weighting System – The weighting pattern uses the expenditures on various consumer items purchased by households as a proportion to total expenditure. 

d. Formula – The formula used in computing the CPI is the weighted arithmetic mean of price relatives, the Laspeyre’s formula with a fixed base year period (2018) weights. 

e. Geographic Coverage – CPI values are computed at the national, regional, and provincial levels, and or selected cities.

Inflation Rate The inflation rate is the annual rate of change, or the year-on-year change of CPI expressed in percent. Inflation is interpreted in terms of declining purchasing power of money.

Price. The amount or value paid in exchange for a commodity or a service rendered.