1. Guimaras Inflation for Bottom 30% Income HHs

The Guimaras inflation for the bottom 30% income HHs moved slower to 1.3 percent in February 2025 from 4.2 percent in January 2025, bringing the provincial average inflation for low-income from March to January 2025 to 2.7. In February 2024, the said inflation rate was faster at 7.0 percent. (Figure 1 and Table 1)

1.1 Main Drivers to the Downward Trend of the Bottom 30% Income HHs’ Inflation

The slower inflation for the low-income HHs in February 2025 was primarily influenced by the decreasing year-on-year price changes in the heavily weighted food and non-alcoholic beverages at 1.5% during the month, from 4.2% in January 2025. The slower annual inflation rate of transport at -0.7% in February 2025 from 2% in the previous month, and housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels at 2.2% during the month, from 3% in January 2025 also contributed to the Inflationary decline of the bottom 30% income HHs.

Likewise, the slow-moving inflation rate was also noted in the other four commodity groups: restaurants and accommodation services at -8.2 percent in February from -5.9 percent in January 2025; personal care, and miscellaneous goods and services at 1.6 percent from 2.4 percent in January 2025; recreation, sport and culture at 1.2 percent in February from 4.4 percent in previous month; and furnishings at 1.2 percent in February from 1.3 percent in January 2025.

In contrast, the following were the items with faster inflation in February than in January 2025:

• Alcoholic beverages and tobacco, 4.2 percent from 3.9 percent, and 

• Clothing and footwear, 1.5 percent from 1.4 percent

While the other 4 commodities retained their previous month’s inflation rate: health at 2.2 percent, information and communication at 5.5 percent, and education and financial services at 0.0 percent, each.

1.2 Main Contributors to the Bottom 30% Income HHs’ Inflation

In February 2025, the inflation for low-income households in Guimaras was primarily influenced by three major commodity groups: the largest contributor was food and non-alcoholic beverages at 71.0 percent of the province’s inflation rate, or 0.92 percentage points contribution to the 1.3% inflation, with the notable drop primarily driven by a significant 5.2% decrease in rice prices, impacting overall food costs.

Housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels followed closely at 19.8 percent, or 0.26 percentage points contribution to the inflation, with a significant impact from electricity prices across all sources— coal, solar, and hydro—showing an inflation rate of 4.8%.

Lastly, alcoholic beverages and tobacco contributed 12.3 percent, or 0.16 percentage points, to the overall inflation with the decrease largely driven by a remarkable 5.9% inflation rate in spirits and liquors.

2. Bottom 30% Income HHs’ Inflation per province in Region VI

Guimaras shows a declining inflation trend compared to other provinces in WV

Guimaras exhibited a declining inflation trend compared to other provinces in Western Visayas, based on the inflation rates from February 2024 to February 2025, as shown in Figure 2. While inflation fluctuated across the region, Guimaras noted a peak of 8.6% in April 2024, followed by a gradual decline to 1.3% in February 2025. This downward trend distinguished the province from others in the region.'

Aklan and Antique experienced notable decreases in inflation, particularly in the first two months of 2025. Aklan, which had an inflation rate of 8.9% in June 2024, recorded a decline to 1.4% in February 2025, while Antique recorded deflation, dropping from 9.1% in April 2024 to -1.0% in February 2025. Capiz experienced fluctuating inflation, peaking at 5.8% in June 2024 before gradually declining to 3.9% in February 2025, showing a relatively stable trend. Meanwhile, Iloilo Province and Negros Occidental had a steady inflation trend, with Iloilo rising from 2.4% in February 2024 to 7.4% in August 2024, before slightly declining to 4.1% in February 2025, while Negros Occidental peaked at 5.4% in July 2024 and fluctuated before settling at 1.7% in February 2025.

The two Highly Urbanized Cities (HUCs), Iloilo City and Bacolod City, exhibited dynamic inflation patterns. Iloilo City experienced faster inflation early in the year, with rates as low as -0.8% in February 2024, before rebounding to 3.9% in February 2025. Bacolod City initially recorded high inflation, peaking at 7.0% in July 2024, before experiencing a significant decline to 3.4% in February 2025.

While other provinces and cities displayed more volatile inflation shifts, Guimaras followed a more controlled and consistent downward trend. (see Figure 2)