1. Guimaras Inflation for Bottom 30% Income HHs

The Guimaras inflation for the bottom 30% income HHs moved slower to 6.0 percent in September 2024 from 6.4 percent in August 2024, bringing the provincial average inflation for low-income from January to September 2024 to 7.4. In September 2023, the said inflation rate was faster at 7.0 percent. (Figure 1 and Table 1)

1.1 Main Drivers to the downward Trend of the Bottom 30% Income HHs’ Inflation

The slower inflation for the low-income HHs in September 2024 for was primarily influenced by the sluggish year-on-year price changes in the heavily weighted food and non-alcoholic beverages at 6.6 percent during the month, from 7.9 percent in August 2024. The decreasing annual inflation rate of Transport at -4.9 percent in September 2024 from -1.3 percent in the previous month also contributed to the slower overall inflation of the bottom 30% income HHs.

Likewise, Clothing and Footwear posted 1.2 percent inflation slower against 2.5 percent in August 2024. 

Other commodities which showed gradual decrease in inflation rates for low income HHs in September 2024 were:

a. Education Services, 0.0 percent from 5.4 percent 

b. Recreation, Sport and Culture, 7.8 percent from 12.4 percent

In contrast, six commodity groups showed faster rates in September 2024 against the previous month’s data:

a. Alcoholic Beverages and Tobacco, 3.7 percent from 3.4 percent; 

b. Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels, 13.7 percent from 8.1 percent; 

c. Furnishings, Household Equipment and Routine Household Maintenance, 2.1 percent from 1.8 percent; 

d. Health, 2.4 percent from 1.4 percent 

e. Information and Communication, 3.4 percent from 2.3 percent; and 

f. Personal Care, And Miscellaneous Goods and Services, 3.8 percent from 3.6

Moreover, Restaurants and Accommodation Services, and Financial Services retained their previous month’s annual rates.

1.2 Main Contributors to the Bottom 30% Income HHs’ Inflation

The top three commodity groups with major contribution to the September 2024 overall bottom 30% income HHs inflation were the following:

a. Food and Non-Alcoholic Beverages with 66.6 percent share contributed 3.99 percentage points; 

b. Housing, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other Fuels with 2.3 percent chipped in 1.58 percentage points; and 

c. Restaurants and Accommodation Services, with 2.9 percent share added 0.18 percentage points.

2. Bottom 30% Income HHs’ Inflation per province in Region VI

Aklan showed a decrease in inflation rates from 7.5% in September 2023 to 3.1% by September 2024. The data indicates a downward trend, particularly after January 2024, with a consistent reduction in inflation, reflecting more stable economic conditions. 

Antique exhibited the highest inflation rates, reaching 8.7% in September 2023. The rates fluctuated, with a peak of 9.1% in April 2024, before declining to 3.0% in September 2024. This volatility suggests varying economic conditions throughout the year. 

Capiz showed relative stability in inflation, with rates ranging from a peak of 8.1% in September 2023 to 4.2% in September 2024. The observed fluctuations indicate periods of increased inflation, followed by a general decline toward the end of the observation period. 

Iloilo recorded the lowest inflation rate of 0.7% in January 2024, despite peaking at 7.7% in September 2023. By September 2024, the rate was at 5.4%, reflecting fluctuations but an overall trend toward stabilization after January. 

Guimaras maintained relatively low inflation rates, starting at 7.0% in September 2023, peaking at 8.8% in May 2024, and then decreasing to 6.9% by September 2024. The data indicates a fluctuating pattern with a general decline in the latter months. 

Negros Occidental exhibited the lowest inflation rates throughout the period, peaking at 7.7% in September 2023 and declining to 3.4% by September 2024. The data indicates a steady decrease in inflation rates over the observed months, suggesting a consistent economic environment.

The inflation rates across the provinces of Western Visayas from September 2023 to September 2024 reveals varied trends. Aklan and Negros Occidental demonstrated significant declines in inflation, suggesting improved economic stability. Antique experienced considerable volatility, with marked peaks and subsequent reductions, indicating fluctuating economic conditions. Capiz showed a relatively stable pattern, while Iloilo's rates fluctuated significantly but ultimately trended toward stabilization. Guimaras displayed a generally decreasing trend after July 2024.

Overall, while some provinces faced challenges in the rate of change in prices, others showed resilience and effective management, contributing to varying economic landscapes in the region.